Náxaravs
Peña Sport
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Peña Sport · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Náxara 1-0 Peña Sport
Original prediction
Peña Sport
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.7% | 32.8% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.9% | 27.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.4% | 39.9% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Peña Sport
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Peña Sport has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60