Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Olot · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Náxara 1-2 Olot
Original prediction
Olot
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 29.3% | 32.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.87 | 31.2% | 28.9% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.5% | 38.9% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Olot
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Olot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NáxaraLWLWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
OlotDDLDL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NáxaraOlot
0.0Attack66.7
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form33.3
7.0Power45.3
1.24xG1.45