Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barbastro · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Náxara 0-0 Barbastro
Original prediction
Barbastro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 29.1% | 28.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.4% | 27.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.5% | 43.5% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Barbastro
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Barbastro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NáxaraLLLWL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BarbastroLDWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NáxaraBarbastro
11.1Attack44.4
11.1Defence55.6
0.0Form44.4
11.8Power51.1
1.03xG1.53