Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Numancia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Numancia are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Zaragoza are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and zaragoza hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Friendlies Clubs, favouring Numancia with 11.1% confidence, a 66% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Numancia
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
11.1%
Numancia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80