Numanciavs
Navalcarnero
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/24/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Numancia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Numancia 0-0 Navalcarnero, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Numancia 2-3 Navalcarnero
Original prediction
Numancia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.5% | 42.3% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.3% | 30.3% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.74 | 19.2% | 27.4% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Projected Score
Numancia 0–0 Navalcarnero
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Numancia
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Numancia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NumanciaDDDWD
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 0.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
NavalcarneroDDDWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
NumanciaNavalcarnero
28.6Attack47.6
95.2Defence52.4
61.9Form42.9
64.0Power49.8
1.06xG0.77