Numanciavs
Guadalajara
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/27/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Numancia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Numancia 1-0 Guadalajara
Original prediction
Numancia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.4% | 45.3% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.0% | 28.2% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 20.6% | 26.4% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Numancia
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Numancia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80