Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Næsby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Næsby 4-0 Holstebro
Original prediction
Næsby
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.7% | 55.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 21.1% | 19.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 22.2% | 25.0% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Næsby
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Næsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NæsbyWDLLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
HolstebroLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NæsbyHolstebro
59.3Attack59.3
48.1Defence33.3
51.9Form48.1
54.0Power48.0
2.50xG1.64