Næsbyvs
AC Horsens
COMPLETEDDenmark · DBU Pokalen · 9/16/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Horsens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Næsby 2-3 AC Horsens
Original prediction
AC Horsens
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.81 | 15.4% | 36.4% | 20.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.0% | 23.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 64.5% | 40.0% | -24.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
AC Horsens
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
AC Horsens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60