Novosibirskvs
Kaluga
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League A - Division A Gold · 9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Novosibirsk 0-0 Kaluga, with an exact score probability of 27%.
Prediction record
Final result
Novosibirsk 3-0 Kaluga
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 52.4% | 38.2% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.2% | 32.7% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 21.3% | 29.1% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Projected Score
Novosibirsk 0–0 Kaluga
Exact score probability: 27%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.7%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NovosibirskDLLDD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KalugaDWDDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
NovosibirskKaluga
33.3Attack18.5
51.9Defence70.4
33.3Form22.2
42.5Power40.2
0.69xG0.67