Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Novara are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Triestina are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 12.7-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00