Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Novara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Triestina are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 12.7-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00