Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Novara are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Triestina are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 12.7-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20