Novaravs
Pergolettese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Novara 0-1 Pergolettese
Original prediction
Novara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.2% | 41.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.8% | 29.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 25.0% | 29.4% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Novara
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Novara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NovaraWDDLW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PergoletteseDLLDD
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
NovaraPergolettese
66.7Attack38.6
33.3Defence56.1
33.3Form39.5
45.3Power45.8
1.27xG0.96