Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Novara are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Padova are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20