Novaravs
Ospitaletto
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/26/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ospitaletto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Novara 0-2 Ospitaletto
Original prediction
Ospitaletto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.8% | 34.4% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.2% | 29.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.1% | 36.5% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Ospitaletto
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Ospitaletto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00