Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Novara are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Mantova are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold a 23.3-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 68.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.9% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Mantova holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80