Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Novara are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lumezzane are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lumezzane hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.2% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00