Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Novara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lumezzane are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lumezzane hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.2% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60