Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novara · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Novara 0-0 Livorno
Original prediction
Novara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 35.7% | 36.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.4% | 28.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 35.9% | 35.0% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Novara
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Novara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NovaraDLWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LivornoDWWDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NovaraLivorno
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power88.7
1.29xG1.23