Novaravs
Folgore Caratese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 8/31/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Novara 2-2 Folgore Caratese
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.5% | 35.0% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 31.3% | 30.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.2% | 34.1% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.89 · Draw 1.89 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
35.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NovaraLWLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Folgore CarateseLDDD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.75/1.00
BTTS 3/4O2.5 1/4
NovaraFolgore Caratese
34.2Attack50.0
57.0Defence50.0
37.7Form50.0
45.4Power50.0
0.95xG1.05