Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novara · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Novara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Clodiense are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Novara hold a 12.9-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 32.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.9% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Novara holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Novara
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Novara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20