Novaravs
Cittadella
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/10/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cittadella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Novara 0-1 Cittadella, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Novara 0-2 Cittadella
Original prediction
Cittadella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.2% | 23.8% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.4% | 27.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.4% | 48.5% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Projected Score
Novara 0–1 Cittadella
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Cittadella
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Cittadella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NovaraWLDDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CittadellaLWWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NovaraCittadella
38.1Attack57.1
57.1Defence81.0
42.9Form85.7
49.0Power76.6
0.70xG1.37