Novaravs
Athletic Carpi
SCHEDULEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Novara are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Athletic Carpi are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Athletic Carpi hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.6% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20