Novaravs
Athletic Carpi
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Novara 2-2 Athletic Carpi
Original prediction
Novara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.4% | 43.4% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 28.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.89 | 23.3% | 28.0% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Novara
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Novara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60