Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Novara are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Alcione are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcione hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (45.4 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.7% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40