Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ohrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Novaci 1-0 Ohrid
Original prediction
Ohrid
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.22 | 8.8% | 29.4% | 20.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.43 | 16.6% | 23.5% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 74.5% | 47.1% | -27.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Ohrid
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Ohrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NovaciLDLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OhridWWWWW
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NovaciOhrid
0.0Attack33.3
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form50.0
7.0Power40.7
1.95xG2.03