GGOALVIO

Brazil · Copa Do Brasil · 3/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Nova Iguaçu · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Nova Iguaçu are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lagarto are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Nova Iguaçu hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (56.8 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.0% in the Copa Do Brasil, while Nova Iguaçu holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Nova Iguaçu

Probability

46.8%

Model confidence

14.0%

Nova Iguaçu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Nova IguaçuDDWDD

GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
LagartoDLLWW

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Nova IguaçuLagarto
55.6Attack33.3
77.8Defence66.7
44.4Form33.3
56.8Power45.3
1.36xG0.87
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