Copa RioCopa Rio
Wednesday, 22 July 2026Last updated 15:01
Nova Iguaçu

Nova Iguaçu

Home
W
11
Full time
América RJ

América RJ

Away
L
Estádio Janio Moraes
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
Nova Iguaçu(46%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Nova Iguaçu
46%
Draw
25%
América RJ
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Nova Iguaçu
34
América RJ
9
Defence
Nova Iguaçu
91
América RJ
66
Momentum
Nova Iguaçu
100
América RJ
0
Danger (xG)
Nova Iguaçu
0.90
América RJ
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Nova Iguaçu)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (América RJ)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Nova Iguaçu)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (América RJ)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Nova IguaçuNova Iguaçu
WW
América RJAmérica RJ
LLWWD

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
Nova Iguaçu46%
Draw25%
América RJ29%

Nova Iguaçu leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Nova Iguaçu head into this in Copa Rio fixture at Estádio Janio Moraes in mixed form (W), while América RJ arrive in mixed form (L). Nova Iguaçu have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for América RJ over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Nova Iguaçu (91/100) and América RJ (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Nova Iguaçu have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. América RJ have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

Nova Iguaçu have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 1.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Nova Iguaçu to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Nova Iguaçu 4632%, Draw 2480%, América RJ 2888%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Nova Iguaçu 1Draws 00 América RJ
Avg goals: 1.0
15 Jul 2026
Nova Iguaçu
W10
América RJ

Recent form

Nova Iguaçu

Nova Iguaçu

W
@ América RJ
15 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
16 May 2026
10
América RJ

América RJ

L
vs Nova Iguaçu
15 Jul 2026
01
L
@ Bonsucesso
1 Jul 2026
23
W
vs Cabofriense
10 Jun 2026
21
W
vs Madureira
16 May 2026
20
D
@ Pérolas Negras
13 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Nova Iguaçu vs América RJ?

GoalVio's model predicts Nova Iguaçu to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Nova Iguaçu vs América RJ?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Nova Iguaçu vs América RJ?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nova Iguaçu vs América RJ?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more