Notts Countyvs
Stockport County
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stockport County · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Notts County 1-1 Stockport County
Original prediction
Stockport County
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.30 | 17.5% | 20.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.9% | 25.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 58.6% | 54.4% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.89 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–214%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Stockport County
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Stockport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20