Notts Countyvs
Oxford United
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oxford United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Notts County 1-2 Oxford United
Original prediction
Oxford United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 37.3% | 29.5% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.8% | 27.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 34.9% | 42.9% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Oxford United
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Oxford United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20