GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/4/2025, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Notts County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Notts County are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Manchester United U21 are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 22.9 against 22.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Notts County holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Notts County

Probability

39.7%

Model confidence

39.7%

Notts County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Notts CountyWDWWW

GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Manchester United U21LLDLD

GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Notts CountyManchester United U21
22.2Attack55.6
33.3Defence0.0
0.0Form11.1
22.9Power22.2
1.91xG1.74
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