Notts Countyvs
Burton Albion
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Notts County · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Notts County 2-1 Burton Albion
Original prediction
Notts County
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 40.9% | 36.8% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 28.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.8% | 35.1% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Notts County
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Notts County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00