Notts Countyvs
Bradford
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Notts County · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Notts County 0-1 Bradford
Original prediction
Notts County
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 32.1% | 36.6% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.8% | 28.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 39.1% | 34.6% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Notts County
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Notts County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00