GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/30/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Barnsley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Notts County are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Barnsley are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Barnsley hold a 25.0-point power-rating edge (22.9 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Barnsley holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Barnsley

Probability

42.3%

Model confidence

42.3%

Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Notts CountyLWLWL

GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BarnsleyLLLWW

GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Notts CountyBarnsley
22.2Attack58.3
33.3Defence33.3
0.0Form50.0
22.9Power47.9
1.62xG1.94
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