Nottingham Forest U21vs
Manchester United U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nottingham Forest U21 3-2 Manchester United U21
Original prediction
Manchester United U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.2% | 30.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 22.9% | 23.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 46.9% | 45.6% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United U21
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Manchester United U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40