Nottingham Forest U21vs
Manchester City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 8/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nottingham Forest U21 2-1 Manchester City U21
Original prediction
Manchester City U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 25.5% | 35.1% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 27.1% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 52.0% | 37.9% | -14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City U21
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Manchester City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20