Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Notodden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Notodden 4-1 Arendal
Original prediction
Notodden
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.2% | 49.5% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.2% | 25.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.6% | 25.1% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Notodden
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Notodden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NotoddenLDWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ArendalLWLWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NotoddenArendal
100.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
97.0Power7.0
2.32xG1.13