Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ural II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nosta 0-1 Ural II
Original prediction
Ural II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.9% | 29.7% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 21.4% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.2% | 48.9% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Ural II
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Ural II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NostaWDDWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Ural IILWLLL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
NostaUral II
31.9Attack52.2
29.0Defence31.9
30.4Form31.9
33.7Power39.7
1.38xG2.06