Nostavs
Orenburg II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 9/27/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orenburg II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nosta 2-0 Orenburg II
Original prediction
Orenburg II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.0% | 28.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.2% | 27.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 40.8% | 43.4% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Orenburg II
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Orenburg II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00