Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nosaby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nosaby 1-0 Österlen
Original prediction
Nosaby
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.6% | 50.3% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.1% | 20.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.2% | 29.6% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Nosaby
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Nosaby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NosabyWWWDL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ÖsterlenWLDDL
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
NosabyÖsterlen
62.7Attack56.0
46.7Defence45.3
56.0Form44.0
54.9Power48.3
2.30xG1.64