Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norway · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norway 1-2 Portugal
Original prediction
Norway
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.5% | 39.0% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 25.2% | 28.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 33.3% | 33.0% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Norway
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Norway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NorwayWDWDL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PortugalWWWWD
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NorwayPortugal
100.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power80.3
1.31xG1.13