World CupWorld Cup
Saturday, 11 July 2026Last updated 10:05
Norway

Norway

Home
LWWLW
12
Full time
England

England

Away
WLWWW
Hard Rock Stadium
GoalVio prediction
54% confidence
England(54%)
Most likely exact score2-3
Prediction correct— Result: England
Win probability
Norway
25%
Draw
21%
England
54%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Norway
78
England
86
Defence
Norway
33
England
46
Momentum
Norway
67
England
79
Danger (xG)
Norway
1.60
England
1.89
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Norway)
1.60
avg per match
xG for (England)
1.89
avg per match
xG against (Norway)
1.26
avg per match
xG against (England)
1.24
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
NorwayNorway
LWWLW
EnglandEngland
WLWWW

Probability breakdown

54% confidence
Norway25%
Draw21%
England54%

England leads with 54% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Norway head into this in World Cup fixture at Hard Rock Stadium in strong form (LWWLW), while England arrive in outstanding form (WLWWW). Norway have a 67% win rate across their last 6 matches, compared to 75% for England over 8 games.

Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Norway (78/100) and England (86/100) are both rated highly going forward. The model anticipates an open, goal-heavy contest.

Norway have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game at home. England have been excellent on the road, winning all 3 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per away game.

Norway have generated 1.32 xG per game recently while conceding 1.48 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 75% of recent matches. England have generated 1.56 xG per game recently while conceding 1.13 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 67% of recent matches.

England have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects England to win with 54% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-3. Win probabilities: Norway 2493%, Draw 2145%, England 5362%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Norway 0Draws 01 England
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/1
11 Jul 2026
Norway
L12
England
xG 0.81.1

Recent form

Norway

Norway

L
vs England
11 Jul 2026
12
xG 0.8
W
@ Brazil
5 Jul 2026
21
xG 0.7
W
@ Ivory Coast
30 Jun 2026
21
L
vs France
26 Jun 2026
14
xG 1.7
W
vs Senegal
23 Jun 2026
32
xG 2.1
England

England

W
@ France
18 Jul 2026
64
L
vs Argentina
15 Jul 2026
12
W
@ Norway
11 Jul 2026
21
xG 1.1
W
@ Mexico
6 Jul 2026
32
xG 1.6
W
vs Congo DR
1 Jul 2026
21
xG 2.0

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Norway vs England?

GoalVio's model predicts England to win with 54% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Norway vs England?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-3.

Will both teams score in Norway vs England?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Norway vs England?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more