Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norway · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norway 3-2 Denmark
Original prediction
Norway
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 52.6% | 54.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 24.2% | 23.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 23.2% | 22.1% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Norway
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Norway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NorwayDWDLD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
DenmarkWDWWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NorwayDenmark
83.3Attack41.7
61.1Defence58.3
72.2Form45.8
69.3Power50.2
1.91xG0.93