Northern Irelandvs
Hungary
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northern Ireland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Northern Ireland 0-0 Hungary
Original prediction
Northern Ireland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 32.9% | 40.7% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 31.4% | 29.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.6% | 29.7% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Northern Ireland
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Northern Ireland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60