Northern Irelandvs
Georgia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/5/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northern Ireland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Northern Ireland 0-0 Georgia
Original prediction
Northern Ireland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.4% | 43.7% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 32.2% | 29.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 28.4% | 26.6% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Northern Ireland
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Northern Ireland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60