NorthEast Unitedvs
ATK Mohun Bagan
COMPLETEDIndia · Indian Super League · 10/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ATK Mohun Bagan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NorthEast United 1-0 ATK Mohun Bagan
Original prediction
ATK Mohun Bagan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.62 | 25.1% | 35.0% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.6% | 28.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 48.4% | 36.9% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
ATK Mohun Bagan
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
ATK Mohun Bagan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40