GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/5/2024, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Northampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Northampton are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Leicester City U21 are 1W-0D-3L in their last 4 (LLWL), averaging 0.75 scored and 3.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Northampton hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 23.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Northampton holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Northampton

Probability

48.1%

Model confidence

48.1%

Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

NorthamptonLWDWW

GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Leicester City U21LLWL

GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.75/3.50

BTTS 2/4O2.5 3/4
NorthamptonLeicester City U21
55.6Attack22.2
11.1Defence0.0
11.1Form33.3
29.5Power23.0
2.25xG1.64
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