Northamptonvs
Chelsea U21
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 9/23/2025, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Northampton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Chelsea U21 are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Northampton hold a 10.8-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 18.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Northampton holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Northampton
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40