GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/26/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Northampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Northampton are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Chelsea U21 are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (LWD), averaging 3.33 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Northampton hold a 10.8-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 18.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Northampton holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Northampton

Probability

49.1%

Model confidence

49.1%

Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

NorthamptonLLLLW

GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Chelsea U21LWD

GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 3.33/3.00

BTTS 3/3O2.5 3/3
NorthamptonChelsea U21
55.6Attack33.3
11.1Defence0.0
11.1Form11.1
29.5Power18.7
2.30xG1.64
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