Northamptonvs
Chelsea U21
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 9/26/2023, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Northampton are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Chelsea U21 are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (LWD), averaging 3.33 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Northampton hold a 10.8-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 18.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Northampton holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Northampton
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 3.33/3.00