North Texasvs
Real Monarchs
COMPLETEDUSA · MLS Next Pro · 9/5/2026, 12:45:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
North Texas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
North Texas 4-1 Real Monarchs
Original prediction
North Texas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.4% | 53.0% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.9% | 21.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.7% | 25.8% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
North Texas
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
North Texas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20