North Districtvs
Southern District
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · League Cup · 10/1/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
North District · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
North District 2-1 Southern District
Original prediction
North District
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.4% | 43.1% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.8% | 25.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.28 | 27.8% | 31.1% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
North District
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
North District has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80